|Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 9 April 2013
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
Tropical Pacific remains ENSO neutral
Current atmospheric and oceanic observations show a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Model forecasts unanimously show a persistence of this neutral pattern for the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn and into early winter. In other words, the development of either an El Niño or a La Niña is very unlikely in the coming three months.
Although the neutral ENSO pattern is only having a limited influence on our climate at present, Australia has experienced consistently warm land and sea surface temperatures since spring 2012, including several record breaking heat waves and the warmest summer on record. The persistently warm waters that continue to surround Australia may promote increased local rainfall in favourable weather conditions.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia’s climate from December through to April. The consensus of current model projections is for a neutral IOD for late autumn into early winter.
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Next update expected on 23 April 2013.
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology